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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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that's because of barack obama. states like nevada be a good example gwen: you say nevada? >> you're right. i'm going to get angry letters now. but i think it's a state where the votes are going to track very similar to the lines of the presidential race. gwen: how about montana? >> you're not seeing the opposite. there isn't a lot of romney coattail effect out of these states. a lot are really either competitive or leaning toward obama. it would not shock me if the race is decided by less than 1,000 votes. that's how tight it is. >> or how many people! [laughter] >> and indiana this week, gloria? that wasn't such a tight race and all of a sudden it is again the >> well, of course. because of remarks made my mourdock, who spoke about rape again and it sort of echoed todd achein, -- aikin, even though it was very different because he is opposed to any exceptions for a abortion. that is a difference from mitt romney's position, we should say. but what happens, when you have this be an issue in the campaign, and you talk about women being up for grarkss women voters are the cr
that's because of barack obama. states like nevada be a good example gwen: you say nevada? >> you're right. i'm going to get angry letters now. but i think it's a state where the votes are going to track very similar to the lines of the presidential race. gwen: how about montana? >> you're not seeing the opposite. there isn't a lot of romney coattail effect out of these states. a lot are really either competitive or leaning toward obama. it would not shock me if the race is decided...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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it's an overwhelmingly white state. we know that obama's struggling with white voters. a state obama won by ten points last time and keep in mind that means it's closer than wisconsin, pennsylvania, closer than a whole bunch and closer than nevada, states recognized as battlegrounds and a democratic history and makes it difficult for romney and not hard to see why the combination of results of a last few elections and the state's demographics could put it in play. other hand, polls show obama ahead and 50%. the campaigns have an investment there and they don't take the evidence of a strong race and inclined to think although minnesota is closer than people think it's probably not going romney's way. >> nate, let's talk about ohio. the sort of premier swing state. you have made the point of a state filled with white working class voters and elsewhere turned on obama in four years and if they had in ohio like they have elsewhere this would be a pretty easy romney feat and obama's ahead by a few points and been a consistent leap. i want to run a number that jumped out at m
it's an overwhelmingly white state. we know that obama's struggling with white voters. a state obama won by ten points last time and keep in mind that means it's closer than wisconsin, pennsylvania, closer than a whole bunch and closer than nevada, states recognized as battlegrounds and a democratic history and makes it difficult for romney and not hard to see why the combination of results of a last few elections and the state's demographics could put it in play. other hand, polls show obama...
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Oct 30, 2012
10/12
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the obama campaign thinks it's up in most of the swing states, but the romney polls show a different story. the public polls show that president obama sleis leading m romney by a decent-sized margin in pennsylvania. >> thank you very much, chris and erin. i know it's a tough conversation. your attention is focused on all the people greatly affected by the storm and also on politics. it's important. search and rescue operations are in progress in atlantic city, new jersey with new video coming in plus the floodwaters still inundating atlantic city. dozens were trapped by floodwaters in their homes and emergency shelters after in some cases ignoring mandatory evacuation orders to move inland. in the meantime the city's mayor fought back against criticism about governor christie he allowed people to shelter in the city. the atlantic city mayor joins us by phone. thank you for your time. >> you're welcome. good afternoon. >> before i get into this, give me an assessment what you know to be the case? are people still right now trapped? what's the situation? >> first of all, let me thank y
the obama campaign thinks it's up in most of the swing states, but the romney polls show a different story. the public polls show that president obama sleis leading m romney by a decent-sized margin in pennsylvania. >> thank you very much, chris and erin. i know it's a tough conversation. your attention is focused on all the people greatly affected by the storm and also on politics. it's important. search and rescue operations are in progress in atlantic city, new jersey with new video...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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i find is interesting that some of the states like montana and north dakota are running against the obama energy policy. people that are running for the pipeline, they're running for, now, for more drilling and by the way, heidi hydecamp says she would urge, urge president obama to fire for lisa jackson. if she could do that, i'd vote for her. >> she's the head of the epa and once they're in office reliable votes for president obama if he wins. >> of course. >> paul: one surprise before we go, heather wilson has been closing the republican there, a tough state because mitt romney isn't going to win that state, but that may be one to look at, 'cause she's been gaining. coming up in our second half hour, with the national polls tied up all eyes are on independents. we'll check in with pollster witt ayers who has new numbers. with all 135 house seats up. a look at what the 113th congress might look like and a roundup of other measures on the ballot in states across the country. including a big showdown in california. new pink lemonade 5-hour energy? 5-hour energy supports the avon foundation
i find is interesting that some of the states like montana and north dakota are running against the obama energy policy. people that are running for the pipeline, they're running for, now, for more drilling and by the way, heidi hydecamp says she would urge, urge president obama to fire for lisa jackson. if she could do that, i'd vote for her. >> she's the head of the epa and once they're in office reliable votes for president obama if he wins. >> of course. >> paul: one...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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president obama and governor romney are in the buckeye state as if the whole race may depend on it. guess what? it probably does. we'll go live to the site of the president's event this morning near columbus. there are more than just two guys running for office. house republicans could actually pick up a few seats on tuesday. we'll talk to the gop's man in charge of holding on to the house and the guy who predicted this could happen more than two years ago. november 2, 2012. this is the daily rundown. i'm chuck todd. let's get to my first read of the morning. four days after one of the worst storms ever to hit the country residents are reeling from sandy's impact. according to an early estimate from ploody's analytic the damage will approach $50 billion including property damage and loss of economic aft ty. more than 3.5 home owners and businesses are facing a day without power. the good news the number keeps coming down but there are still millions without power and then new york, staten island where at least 90 people were killed. the situation is particularly grim and residents a
president obama and governor romney are in the buckeye state as if the whole race may depend on it. guess what? it probably does. we'll go live to the site of the president's event this morning near columbus. there are more than just two guys running for office. house republicans could actually pick up a few seats on tuesday. we'll talk to the gop's man in charge of holding on to the house and the guy who predicted this could happen more than two years ago. november 2, 2012. this is the daily...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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i saw a thing the other day that barack obama's margin in 2008 came from 10 counties in united states. 3,000-something, 3,000-plus counties in the united states. if you take 10 counties out of that, barack obama would not have won the presidenciy. the votes are so concentrated and i think naitself lead to this partisanship. >> it's a function of the geographic and cultural division of our politices, and on what's going to happen next, david, i think you're basically right. the president chose to run an almost entirely negative campaign based on destroying mitt romney from beginning to the end. but his second-term agenda is based on working something out with the congressional republicans. and if he wins in these circumstances a very narrow victory, probably having run this kind of campaign, republicans aren't going to be more pliable. they're going to be less so. >> you think they're be more resistant if he wins? they'll be more resistant in the house? >> yes. and romney on the other hand getting his stuff done depends on having a republican senate which looks like a dicey proposition
i saw a thing the other day that barack obama's margin in 2008 came from 10 counties in united states. 3,000-something, 3,000-plus counties in the united states. if you take 10 counties out of that, barack obama would not have won the presidenciy. the votes are so concentrated and i think naitself lead to this partisanship. >> it's a function of the geographic and cultural division of our politices, and on what's going to happen next, david, i think you're basically right. the president...
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Nov 4, 2012
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give me this person to help president obama succeed. >> president obama is not going to lose the state of minnesota. i can speak with a little bit of authority and credibility on that one. so president clinton going to minnesota tomorrow, he's going to be there to try to defeat michele bachmann in supporting a guy named jim graves who is a self-made guy. this is a guy that came from a very humble background. he's a very successful businessman. in fact, joy, if the republicans wanted to get somebody to run, this is the kind of guy that they'd go after. >> yeah. >> what kind of effect can bill clinton have on a high-profile tea partier who has been very critical of the president from day one, michele bachmann? >> think about what you just said. this candidate on the democratic side is a perfect democrat and a perfect dlc -- he's somebody that michele bachmann's softer supporters, whether it's women who are concerned with her position on women's issues, or republicans, there are a lot of republicans who look fondly at bill clinton, who might be thinking, you know what, michele bachmann wa
give me this person to help president obama succeed. >> president obama is not going to lose the state of minnesota. i can speak with a little bit of authority and credibility on that one. so president clinton going to minnesota tomorrow, he's going to be there to try to defeat michele bachmann in supporting a guy named jim graves who is a self-made guy. this is a guy that came from a very humble background. he's a very successful businessman. in fact, joy, if the republicans wanted to...
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Nov 4, 2012
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four-point margin for obama. >> it is 47-47, president obama well under 50 in a state he should be well over 50, there are a million more democrats in pennsylvania that republicans. energy is very important issue in the state of pennsylvania and in 2008 in the democrat primary, hillary clinton beat president obama by double digits after president obama was the nominee for the party. it is fertile ground. >>chris: what will you look at early on election night? what states in what counties? how will you know if it is going to be an early night or long night? how long do you think it will take for us to figure out who is the next president? >>guest: there will be a lot of key things but what we are seeing is that there is a general underperforming in places where president obama needs to do well and this is overperforming in places where governor romney does well. there is an intensity factor on the side of the republicans that there is a significant gap and we see it on the ground with people knocking on the door and when people are making phone calls and, again, it is back to the simple
four-point margin for obama. >> it is 47-47, president obama well under 50 in a state he should be well over 50, there are a million more democrats in pennsylvania that republicans. energy is very important issue in the state of pennsylvania and in 2008 in the democrat primary, hillary clinton beat president obama by double digits after president obama was the nominee for the party. it is fertile ground. >>chris: what will you look at early on election night? what states in what...
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Oct 31, 2012
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first let's begin by putting those states back in the obama column here for a minute. and i will explain. so that is at 243. the issue is this, you have the romney campaign believing virginia and florida is theirs. they really do believe they will r win colorado. if you moved iowa, new hampshire, and wisconsin over to there, hiohio is the one in pla. it could put either one of them over the top. it could put romney at 275 or it could put obama at 281. let's say you believe you can't win ohio if you're the mitt romney campaign. you have to take away 12 electoral votes from him. well, boy, pennsylvania, you could steal that. look at how that would change the map. and that would given you more. but pennsylvania is not going to work, well, how about the state of your birth. if you couldn't take michigan, again, you could change the math. boy, did they take a long time to mess with that. i'm going to give them more credit. there is a republican super pac laying the groundwork in minnesota for months called the american future fund, it's a bunch of folks mostly out of iowa b
first let's begin by putting those states back in the obama column here for a minute. and i will explain. so that is at 243. the issue is this, you have the romney campaign believing virginia and florida is theirs. they really do believe they will r win colorado. if you moved iowa, new hampshire, and wisconsin over to there, hiohio is the one in pla. it could put either one of them over the top. it could put romney at 275 or it could put obama at 281. let's say you believe you can't win ohio if...
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Oct 28, 2012
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listen, romney may be on to something given that in 2008, there were states that then candidate obama lost on election day. but he carried them because of his campaigns early voting strategy. right now polls show that in key states like ohio, president obama leads mitt romney 2:1 or 60% to 30% with early voters. remains to be seen what strategy will seal the deal and who will win this election. but come election day, it will be clear whether the right strategy was galvanize voters early, early, early, or just hope they show up on election day. let's go to our table of experts. we -- look, this is it. 2450es are the final days. this is serious politics. so what's happening here particularly among my strategists. is it about targeting 106 counties, is it about early, early, swing voters, what is the winning strategy? >> what's going on is we have a gruff's race for ohio going on and barack obama and mitt romney are the candidates. we're dead in in terms of focusing in on specific counties because everyone's focused on ohio and i think to some degree candidates and people down at the cou
listen, romney may be on to something given that in 2008, there were states that then candidate obama lost on election day. but he carried them because of his campaigns early voting strategy. right now polls show that in key states like ohio, president obama leads mitt romney 2:1 or 60% to 30% with early voters. remains to be seen what strategy will seal the deal and who will win this election. but come election day, it will be clear whether the right strategy was galvanize voters early, early,...
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Oct 28, 2012
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>> national tracking polls has of them close, but the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identify and not only support -- identified not only supporters, but leaners, and persuade them on how one by one retail basis. weeks before election day, you know who your voters are. you want to be sure you get the vote. >> in many of the battle ground states, obama has more field offices. >> it is down to micromanaging, micro-issuing these of votes. interestingly, the republicans had a better ground game in 2004, and a lot of people think that is why and they won that close election. it sort of fell into disrepair today are building it back up now, but i don't think they are anywhere near where obama is yet. >> there is another question. which candidate has the most d.c. asked to come most engaged, most dedicated supporters? >> that is a hard one to answer. clearly after the first debate, the republican party at everly and these as to support their. romney did do well compared to obama. there was disappointme
>> national tracking polls has of them close, but the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identify and not only support -- identified not only supporters, but leaners, and persuade them on how one by one retail basis. weeks before election day, you know who your voters are. you want to be sure you get the vote. >> in many of the battle ground states, obama has more field offices....
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Nov 2, 2012
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. >> i'm tired of barack obama and mitt romney. >> we spoke to abigail's mom, liz. they told us they don't even have a television. she's upset about the radio. >> she's a swing state. >> the election will be over soon, okay? >> okay. >>> taking a leap of faith. ♪ >> tacos, delicious food. >> thumbs up for me. >> canons can be fun in the right setting. why not combine the two? >> taco cannon? >> this is in austin, texas, and if you look right over here, there's a guy with a taco cannon shooting tacos into this crowd of people. they scramble for a taco that are, of course, wrapped up. what better way to have fun? >> better be really good taco. >> i don't care if it's a mediocre ta mediocre taco. >> baseball games, they shoot the hotdogs. they do this for fun. get free tacos shot at your face. >> that's literally getting your product out there. >> i'm surprised no injuries. >> funny if they shot the tacos, then the hot sauce. next time you're in austin, check it out. get a taco from a cannon. >>> this girl is alaire, she's autistic. one of the things she's found calm
. >> i'm tired of barack obama and mitt romney. >> we spoke to abigail's mom, liz. they told us they don't even have a television. she's upset about the radio. >> she's a swing state. >> the election will be over soon, okay? >> okay. >>> taking a leap of faith. ♪ >> tacos, delicious food. >> thumbs up for me. >> canons can be fun in the right setting. why not combine the two? >> taco cannon? >> this is in austin, texas, and...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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narrowly favor president obama right now, keep in mind, these are all very competitive states, three, four points. >> woodruff: and, margaret, to that point and the point you were making a minute ago, what is it that the obama folks feel they need to do in these final days? >> if today is a road map for the next few days, what they feel they need to do is return to the high ground, so to speak. today you did not here a lot of rom indonesia, you heard a lot of "look at the storm, this is what we can do -- romnesia" we need to hold hands and buckle down. they want that to be the message and for president obama to be able to close the final days of this race with him saying i'm your president and i will continue to be a president and bring everyone together. he would love to return to that hope and change message. he hasn't been able to do so in recent weeks because they were playing from a weakened position. this allows them make that transition and they'll take it. >> woodruff: well, we hear you both. you guys wl be watching from now until election day and we'll watch with you. margar
narrowly favor president obama right now, keep in mind, these are all very competitive states, three, four points. >> woodruff: and, margaret, to that point and the point you were making a minute ago, what is it that the obama folks feel they need to do in these final days? >> if today is a road map for the next few days, what they feel they need to do is return to the high ground, so to speak. today you did not here a lot of rom indonesia, you heard a lot of "look at the...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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FOXNEWSW
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you had states solid or leading obama in shades of blue with 237 electoral votes. and states solid or leading romney with 2306 votes and eight toss ups in yellow with 95 electoral votes and you need 270 to win the presidency. this is from last monday and this shows all of the states some of the leading obama and romney. any movement last week? >> well, we will know tomorrow night with our electoral college map but we are at a point where there is little movement, the momentum was on romney's side but the closer you get to the end, one of two things happens. the 1980 with rapid movement in one direction or we see what i think we are seeing, movement toward romney but slowing because we are down to the thin group of people. >>chris: do you have any sense of big movement? >> at this point the polls are less important than the early voting numbers, the actually people voting. take ohio, in ohio 1 109,000 fer democrats than now years ago allied for early, and 400,000 more republicans already, so there is a shift of 120,000 or 130,000 absentee ballots to republicans. >>c
you had states solid or leading obama in shades of blue with 237 electoral votes. and states solid or leading romney with 2306 votes and eight toss ups in yellow with 95 electoral votes and you need 270 to win the presidency. this is from last monday and this shows all of the states some of the leading obama and romney. any movement last week? >> well, we will know tomorrow night with our electoral college map but we are at a point where there is little movement, the momentum was on...
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Oct 30, 2012
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bill clinton was sent to minnesota which had been a safe obama state, recently moved to a lean obama state. so they're having to shore up in minnesota and pennsylvania. where romney has put additional resources in, because last week he said bob, watch where the money goes. that's where the money is going from both campaigns, does it mean they're more up for grabs? >> bob: romney spread out the electoral map no question about it. if obama were to lose minnesota, it would be a landslide for romney. they have to send him in to shore things up. he will get to colorado where he needs to be. what romney, though, is missing here is a lot of campaign events in ohio, which he desperately needs. >> dana: that's where he was today. >> bob: but he was doing fundraising there. which is fine. but he needs to do the rallies and other things. anytime you freeze something, it doesn't actually mean you come back to where it was when you froze it. >> eric: no, but it doesn't mean the momentum changes back. face it, president obama has had the best success at changing the polling. when he goes negative.
bill clinton was sent to minnesota which had been a safe obama state, recently moved to a lean obama state. so they're having to shore up in minnesota and pennsylvania. where romney has put additional resources in, because last week he said bob, watch where the money goes. that's where the money is going from both campaigns, does it mean they're more up for grabs? >> bob: romney spread out the electoral map no question about it. if obama were to lose minnesota, it would be a landslide for...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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WETA
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>> the national tracking polls as them close, but if you go to the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead in those states and that will put him over the top. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identified not only supporters not onlyleaners -- only supporters, but leaners. by election day, you know who your voters are and you want to be sure they go to a. > -- to vote. >> in many the battleground states, obama has more field offices. >> it comes down to micro- managing and micro-issuing these folks. the republicans have a better ground game in 2004, and a lot of people think it that is why they won that close election, and it fell into disrepair today are building it back up now, but i don't think they are near where obama is yet. >> which candidate has the most enthusiastic, the most in gauge, the most dedicated supporters, colby? >> that is a hard one to answer. i think that clearly after the first debate, the republican party had enthusiastic supporters there. romney did it do well compared to obama. there was disappointment with presid
>> the national tracking polls as them close, but if you go to the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead in those states and that will put him over the top. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identified not only supporters not onlyleaners -- only supporters, but leaners. by election day, you know who your voters are and you want to be sure they go to a. > -- to vote. >> in many the battleground states, obama has more...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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KRCB
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how many will vote in new york or pennsylvania, or new jersey, a blue state, where obama -- >> if they don't get to the polls -- >> no. >> how about early voting? who do that help? >> people claim to know that, but i don't think -- >> there's a lot of spin. >> no, spin? >> people clinton now, -- and, know -- people claim to know, and i don't know how they really can. >> both of them are hiring lawyers on election night, so there will be a lot of contested votes. we could spin into wednesday, thursday, weeks beyond. >> could i have the envelope, please? >> how many states would be un result because of sandy? >> depends on the closeness of the race. >> most of the damage, and i am sure this is divine intervention on the part of conservatives, occurred in blue states. >> l me talk about jobs again. how about romney's jeep ad. >> obamas told chrysler to italians who are going to build the jeeps in china. >> one of the most flagrantly dishonest ads have seen in my career. >> the chrysler ceo angrily denies shipping jobs to china, and chrysler's third quarter profits are up over a year ago.
how many will vote in new york or pennsylvania, or new jersey, a blue state, where obama -- >> if they don't get to the polls -- >> no. >> how about early voting? who do that help? >> people claim to know that, but i don't think -- >> there's a lot of spin. >> no, spin? >> people clinton now, -- and, know -- people claim to know, and i don't know how they really can. >> both of them are hiring lawyers on election night, so there will be a lot of...
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Nov 4, 2012
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of swing states and the bigger list, really about a dozen states, in 9 of the 12 states, obama le by 1 to 5 points over romney, in the real clear politics average. it seems there are three possibilities, one, the polls are wrong, two, romney's ground game will beat the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that
of swing states and the bigger list, really about a dozen states, in 9 of the 12 states, obama le by 1 to 5 points over romney, in the real clear politics average. it seems there are three possibilities, one, the polls are wrong, two, romney's ground game will beat the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible...
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Nov 4, 2012
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coming up, president obama helping lock up the badger's state. we're joined for an update on wisconsin voting. stay tuned, you're watching "the ed show" live from democracy plaza. you're also looking at all of the skating that takes place here. i was going to skat tonight, but i've got sore ankles, i think i'll pass. we're coming right back. [ male announcer ] febreze. eliminates odors and leaves carpets fresh. ♪ and leaves carpets fresh. if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating? yeah. one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these digestive issues with three strains of good bacteria. approved! [ phillips' lady ] live the regular life. phillips'. >>
coming up, president obama helping lock up the badger's state. we're joined for an update on wisconsin voting. stay tuned, you're watching "the ed show" live from democracy plaza. you're also looking at all of the skating that takes place here. i was going to skat tonight, but i've got sore ankles, i think i'll pass. we're coming right back. [ male announcer ] febreze. eliminates odors and leaves carpets fresh. ♪ and leaves carpets fresh. if we want to improve our schools... ......
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is president obama going to win the state of ohio? >> he is going to win, ed. we're going to deliver. they talked about the use of the word "revenge." . but all of us get caught up from time to time. but the president has heart-soul agreement and that is what is going to deliver this election to him. ohioans whether they're working class white males, african-american or hispanic and asian folks we know that he has heart-soul agreement and he has been standing in the ready position for us for over four years, we are going to deliver the state of ohio for president, barack obama. >> before i let you go here, tomorrow is souls to the polls, is that correct. >> yes. >> and this is going to be a big deal, isn't it? >> big deal. from 1:00 to 5:00 p.m. we fought hard to get sunday back. the churches are ready to rock and roll and we're talking all souls to the polls tomorrow. >> thanks so much. >>> still to come, president clinton has been an effective surrogate for president obama this election season. could he have an effect on down-ballot races as well? >>> and the
is president obama going to win the state of ohio? >> he is going to win, ed. we're going to deliver. they talked about the use of the word "revenge." . but all of us get caught up from time to time. but the president has heart-soul agreement and that is what is going to deliver this election to him. ohioans whether they're working class white males, african-american or hispanic and asian folks we know that he has heart-soul agreement and he has been standing in the ready...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't think that makes, you know, nate silver or myself or anyone else who stairs at the polls and says obama is favored, you know, being incredibly insightful. polls are right and pollsters get the credit. if obama loses i don't think nate silver should be panned out. i don't think either. >> never pan you. >> you could use your wizardry to answer this question. isn't it quite possible at this point in terms of electoral college when you're looking at the key battleground states the president has a lead in most them. isn't it possible the president w
the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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they considered states like new hampshire, minnesota, pennsylvania all safe obama states. now they are going up on advertising, sending their surrogates in because they are on defense on states that they considered very safe for obama, whereas governor romney is able to expand the map into states that were considered outside of that window and that includes states like wisconsin as well. that were considered safe seats -- double digit states the president carried in 2008. >> we have to let that be the last word but thanks for coming on the program. it's good to see you. >> you bet. >> susan, let's talk about the polls. gallup daily tracking poll is suspended because of sandy. but we did see a national poll that showed obama up by one, more significantly in the battleground states but some of the numbers are tightening. the gap is closing but does obama still have enough of a lead. would he still be considered when you look at all these polls in aggregate the one to be favored? >> i think if you look at the whole set of swing states, polls that president obama seems to have
they considered states like new hampshire, minnesota, pennsylvania all safe obama states. now they are going up on advertising, sending their surrogates in because they are on defense on states that they considered very safe for obama, whereas governor romney is able to expand the map into states that were considered outside of that window and that includes states like wisconsin as well. that were considered safe seats -- double digit states the president carried in 2008. >> we have to...